DISQUS

Daniel Gibbons · 1 year ago

My take on it is a little different. Online advertising won't plummet off a cliff, but its growth also won't keep up with the growth in inventory. Growth is obviously better than no growth, but in general publishers will make less money even as overall dollars increase or hold steady.

The start-ups that have revenue projections that assume the revenue curve will track their traffic growth will be hit by this and have to scale back or raise more money.

Steve · 1 year ago

Not finding anything of substance in this article.

mathewi · 1 year ago

Sorry to hear that, Steve. Try reading another article -- perhaps one on someone else's blog.

jen evans · 1 year ago

I'm at the marketingsherpa B2B conference in Boston as I type this, and search was everywhere today. Wanted to comment on paid search.

I doubt that paid search is going to decline in the short term - and I see room for expansion even in the long term. Trends coming out of the presentation included signficantly increased competition for keywords (good for google since they are auction based), meaning higher search costs - which might be an indication that the search market is starting to overprice itself, except that many of the presenters also reported improvements in cost per acquisition or conversion due to improved search fulfillment. One of our clients used to spend $2K a month on Google, and is now spending $20K/month without batting an eyelash because the returns are there.

Many of the presentations today focused exclusively on search, and *all* of them included some element of search. These are some of the most forward-looking but pragmatic online marketers in the world, and they're bullish on paid search.

As a marketer, it doesn't seem to me that this is a part of the mix on the decline; in fact, under challenging economic conditions, i think it's likely to expand due to its comparatively low cost, powerful ability to target and budget, and low risk.

mathewi · 1 year ago

I think you're probably right, Jen. Thanks for the comment, and the info.

Svetlana Gladkova · 1 year ago

Mathew, good to see there are people that are trying to stay reasonable instead of panicking because of every bad sign we see on the horizon. I think you are absolutely right in your prediction that traditional media will be hurt the most as advertisers will move online looking for cheaper alternatives combined with measurable efficiency of advertising. And many newspapers have already started to report problems with their revenues while many web businesses seem to cut expenses kind of in advance to prevent the hit should it come.

Mrinal · 1 year ago

Crisis, imho, is another term for opportunity. If you deliver value and are a need or have "become" one (from a want), its a time to differentiate and stand out.
CPC and CPA would certainly seem more compelling since that measures results.

jasonkolb · 1 year ago

Yup, it will definitely contract. We're going thru a deflationary credit collapse, and anything that's not necessary for survival will be (is) going down in value. Not as much money to pay for it = lower price. Online advertisers are rarely selling the bare essentials of life, which means their prices will have to come down. As their prices come down, the rates they are willing to pay will also come down. As the rates they pay come down, and many advertisers go out of business, the companies that are funded by online advertising (a la Google) will contract as well.

I would have thought this was obvious. Go read Valleywag, the number of Googlers whining about losing perks is astounding. Google is obviously feeling the hurt, and with the downward pressure on advertising budgets I seriously doubt this trend is going to reverse anytime soon.

Douglas Galbi · 1 year ago

Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. GDP fell 46% and total advertising expenditure fell 54%. See
http://purplemotes.net/2008/09/28/more-on-histo...

Doesn't look healthy to me.

mathewi · 1 year ago

Thanks for that, Douglas. I agree that doesn't sound all that healthy.

Andy Church · 1 year ago

Not sure one can make a cause and effect projection. Defending a print or TV ad budget that can not be directly linked to revenue or sales has always been a tough business. With adwords and affiliate marketing providing measurable return on investment, marketers are in a much stronger position to defend their online media spend. If I am told to cut my marketing budget, TV, PRINT, radio and trade show events are the first to go. Online advertising? Unless the world goes completely in the tank, we still need to keep fueling the sales beast. If anything, I see overall marketing dollars falling, but the total share of online advertising maintaining or perhaps growing in a down economy. Time will tell.

antje wilsch · 1 year ago

I hope all search doesn't just stay in PPC and crappy banners. I'd like to see a lot more targeted search, and better options for ads etc.

I think there a lot of opportunity out there yet to be discovered. Haven't seen anything too new or exciting in a few years now. One ad sequence I saw was pretty brilliant, for that serial killer-does-good tv show but other than that -all ads are still pretty damned boring.

Gebhino · 1 year ago

because the web is so measurable and there are now powerful tools that allow a high and effective level of targeting, online won't suffer too much

henry · 1 year ago

Saying "some companies spent and thrived" is not at all the same thing as saying "advertising thrived."

Auldsod · 1 year ago

Google adds are the ONLY adds I don't mind, because they aren't "in your face." I can't stand these flashing, intrusive adds and on principle won't buy anything advertised in that way.